Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jessica Pegula Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Ekaterina Alexandrova's recent second serve win rate is 39.55%, compared to Jessica Pegula's 44.28%—who does this favor? Pegula seems to have a slight edge.
• In return games, Pegula wins 50.00% of second serves, slightly better than Alexandrova's 49.52%.
• First serve returns: Alexandrova leads with 29.96% over Pegula's 28.65%, showing her slight advantage here.
• Pegula saves 54.13% of breakpoints, while Alexandrova saves 46.88%, favoring Pegula when under pressure.
• Pegula has a slightly better match win rate over the past year at 68.06% compared to Alexandrova's 66.18%.
• Surfaces: Alexandrova excels on indoor hard, Pegula on outdoor hard, suggesting potential venue influence.
• Both players have faced opponents of similar average ranks, though Pegula's opposition has been marginally tougher.
• Alexandrova leads their head-to-head matchups 3 wins to 2, showing historical competitiveness.
• Deciding sets: Alexandrova has the edge in their direct matchups, winning 2 of 3 when it goes the distance.
• General deciding set performance: Pegula holds a slight advantage over the past year, winning 56% to Alexandrova's 53%.

Editorial Prediction (October 8, 2025, UTC):

As Jessica Pegula and Ekaterina Alexandrova prepare to face each other, their stats paint a competitive picture. Pegula seems to have an edge on serve-related metrics, excelling in both second serve performance and breakpoint saves. Meanwhile, Alexandrova shows a strong return on the first serve and holds the upper hand in their head-to-head history.

Pegula's experience against slightly tougher opponents and her superiority in recent year-long performance on hard courts indicate that she might adapt better if the current event is on such surfaces. However, Alexandrova's consistency in deciding sets can make a difference if the match goes the distance.

Considering all present statistics, Jessica Pegula might have a slight edge by leveraging her strength under pressure and consistent serve game. However, the historical closeness of their matchups indicates a possible tight contest.

Based on these insights, Jessica Pegula is predicted to be the likely winner of the upcoming match.