Prediction of Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jessica Pegula at Wuhan Open - Wuhan 10-09-25

• Who's leading in second serve performance? Jessica Pegula has an advantage, winning 44.28% of second serve points compared to Ekaterina Alexandrova's 39.55% over the past six months.
• What about returning opponents' second serves? Both players are strong, but Jessica Pegula is slightly ahead with 50% compared to Ekaterina Alexandrova's 49.52%.
• How do they compare in saving breakpoints under pressure? Jessica Pegula excels here, saving 54.13% of breakpoints, while Ekaterina Alexandrova saves 46.88%.
• Can their overall match performance over the last year tell us anything? Jessica Pegula has a slight edge, with a win rate of 68.06%, while Ekaterina Alexandrova has a win rate of 66.18%.
• What are their preferred surfaces? Ekaterina Alexandrova excels on indoor hard courts with a 69% win rate, whereas Jessica Pegula performs best on hard courts with the same win rate of 69%.
• Who has played more successfully at higher-level events? Ekaterina Alexandrova has dominated the Main tour, winning 72.73% of matches compared to Jessica Pegula's performance in the Masters series, with a 62.50% win rate.
• What do their head-to-head matches indicate? Ekaterina Alexandrova leads with three wins out of five matches against Jessica Pegula.
• How do they perform in deciding sets? In their direct encounters, Ekaterina Alexandrova has won two deciding sets, while Jessica Pegula has managed one.
• What is the quality of their recent opponents? Jessica Pegula has faced tougher competition, playing opponents with an average rank of 50.04 compared to Ekaterina Alexandrova's 57.5.
• What do deciding set performance stats overall show? Jessica Pegula holds a 56% win rate in deciding sets, slightly better than Ekaterina Alexandrova's 53% over the past 12 months.

Editorial Prediction (October 8, 2025, UTC):

In the upcoming match, recent performance indicators slightly favor Jessica Pegula. Her superior second serve win rate and breakpoint saving ability give her an edge.

Though Ekaterina Alexandrova has a positive head-to-head count, Pegula's ability to return better in key moments, and her consistent success on hard courts, suggests a more favorable outcome for her.

Considering the higher-ranked opponents Pegula has recently competed against, she has been more battle-tested under challenging conditions.

While Alexandrova's mastery on indoor hard courts cannot be discounted, Pegula's overall consistency and resilience in deciding sets make her the likely winner of this matchup.